Great Decisions 2026

Trump's return represented a break with eighty years of US foreign policy leadership, adopting an "America First" approach. This chapter explores the dangers of isolation and diminished influence in the context of Trump's foreign policy 2.0. Trump's Tariffs and the Future of the Global Economy: Trump's aggressive trade and tariff policies have destabilized global economic standards. What is the rationale behind this radical shift in economic policy, and what are its implications for multilateral trade and geopolitics? By Michael Mastandono US-China relations: Relations with China remain tense, with tariffs imposed, military modernization, and pressure on Taiwan. Does Trump have a coherent China policy, and will his tariffs on rare earth metals be effective? What are the strategic options available to America? By Oriana Mastro Collapsing alliances and the threat of nuclear proliferation: US questioning of its alliances may prompt countries like Japan and South Korea to reconsider their nuclear options. What are the repercussions of the Trump administration’s reconsideration of the American alliance system on regional and global security? Will this new uncertainty change the way allies and adversaries in different regions make decisions about security and nuclear weapons? By Gideon Rose Ukraine and the Future of European Security: With US support for NATO and Ukraine declining, Europe faces strategic uncertainty. The Trump administration has indicated its intention to reduce its security role in Europe. What are America's interests in NATO and European strategic dilemmas, and how can Europe respond? By Thomas Wright Multilateral institutions in a changing global order: Can multilateralism survive shifting global power balances and rising nationalism? This chapter examines the future of global cooperation in the areas of trade, health and finance. By Scott Besant (subject to change) US Engagement in Africa: Africa’s geopolitical role is growing. What lessons can the United States draw from China's presence there, and how can it strengthen relations, especially with leading countries like Nigeria? What policy tools can the United States employ in its engagement with Africa? Written by Jinday E. Fraser The Future of Human Rights and International Law: With democracy and human rights in decline globally, and the United States withdrawing, how can civil society and legal standards remain effective in a divided world? What is the role and power of international law in this era of impunity?