A Red Line in the Sand Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars that Might Still Happen

The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies published the book A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars that Might Still Happen, as part of the Tarjuman series, written by David A. Andelman, translated by Hazem Nahar, is 577 pages long, including the author’s introduction to the Arabic translation, nine chapters, a conclusion, the author’s appendix to the Arabic translation, references and a general index, in addition to a list of pictures and maps. The book provides a comprehensive framework for understanding global disputes and conflicts, by studying their origins, history, and transformations in their political, economic, and social impact, reviewing historical diplomatic and military examples from multiple regions. It shows how red lines formed a complex network in the world, and how leaders dealt with them to achieve gains or make mistakes that led to unexpected or disastrous consequences. It reviews the role of political structures and laws in making some conflicts inevitable, and draws practical lessons for understanding the equation of war, peace, and geopolitics, with the aim of helping the world become safer and more peaceful in the twenty-first century. The collapse of red lines and the transformations of the global scene. The book Red Line in the Sand highlights the collapse of “red lines” that have formed, throughout history, unwritten controls to regulate relations between peoples and countries, and to ensure a measure of peace and stability. These lines are rooted in history and society, and it is difficult to rebuild them after being torn apart. In the Middle East, the actions of Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement "Hamas" led to the dismantling of the fragile balance between Palestinians and Jews, while Iran worked through its proxies to expand its influence in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, with devastating changes in the region's equations. The conflict in Yemen has affected global maritime security, disrupting maritime trade lines and raising costs and inflation. In Europe, the Russian invasion of Ukraine destroyed borders stable since the collapse of the Soviet Union and opened the door to new alliances forming an “authoritarian axis” bringing together Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, while right-wing forces fueled the rise of additional transformations. As for Asia, the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan represented a return to a decreed historical reality, which is the Durand Line, while China seeks to impose its control over the South China Sea and exert pressure on Taiwan, and the Korean Peninsula remains a fragile theater that raises concern with the growing rapprochement between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin. Thus, the global scene appears fragmented, with old lines of deterrence eroding and new, more fragile ones forming, threatening regional and international stability. Africa and the Americas between stability and vibration The book Red Line in the Sand presents the transformations of Africa and the Americas in light of the collapse of historical “red lines.” In Africa, although the borders remain stable, the continent has witnessed a wave of military coups since 2020 that has placed the Sahel region under the rule of unelected juntas, with the withdrawal of Western forces and the rise of the influence of Russian mercenaries and armed jihadists. This deepened the crises and ignited internal conflicts, as in Sudan, which is experiencing one of the worst humanitarian disasters in decades. As for the Americas, with the borders remaining stable for a full century since the Monroe Doctrine, a new threat has emerged with Russia’s return to the region for the first time since the Cuban missile crisis, through the docking of nuclear submarines in Havana in 2024, which is a direct challenge to American red lines. The continent is witnessing border tensions between Venezuela and oil-rich Guyana, in light of rapid political changes. The book concludes that re-understanding these red lines and realizing the reasons for their establishment is a prerequisite for restoring stability, but the world faces a new reality that requires adaptation to tyrannical alliances and shifting balances in order to preserve the simplest elements of coexistence.